AI for Science Meeting
Computational Sustainability
1 Working Group Meeting
st
21-23 June, 2023
Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Bernard Gagnon, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
The Magdalena River Basin is the largest river system in Colombia and is central to plans to decarbonize the country’s energy system with hydropower. The basin is home to more than three-quarters of Colombia’s human population and is a biodiversity hotspot with a large proportion of endemic species. Moreover, the Magdalena region is the economic backbone of Colombia, and is renowned for its rich cultural heritage. Like other riverine biodiversity hotspots around the world, hydropower expansion in the Magdalena could transform the societal benefits provided by free-flowing rivers. Therefore, strategic basin-scale planning is paramount for understanding the trade-offs associated with low-carbon energy futures, biodiversity conservation, and a suite of sustainable development goals. By harnessing AI, the broad aim of our working group is to evaluate how, in the face of climate change, alternative portfolios of hydropower and other renewable energy sources can best provide clean energy while minimizing adverse impacts on multiple socio-environmental objectives across the Magdalena basin. This effort complements ongoing work, supported by the Institute for Computational Sustainability at Cornell University, developing a computational framework for strategic hydropower planning across large and hyperdiverse river systems.
Our inaugural 3-day meeting held at Cornell will be structured in two stages. The first day will include an overview of the Magdalena River Basin, prospects for energy transitions in Colombia, and brief participant presentations on key criteria such as biodiversity, sediment transport, and greenhouse gas emissions, which will help provide context for ensuing discussions. We will also discuss computational approaches that use AI for evaluating trade-offs among different criteria, considering vast numbers of hydropower portfolios. On Days 2 and 3, we will break into smaller groups to synthesize information needed to estimate different social-ecological objectives, which will form part of our multi-objective trade-off analyses. In addition, we will work on problem formulation and develop strategies for filling critical information gaps.
As starting points, we will consider questions such as the following:
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For different spatial configurations of dams, what are the trade-offs between hydropower yields and multiple social-ecological objectives, including river connectivity, biodiversity, and greenhouse gas emissions?
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Can the addition of other renewables such as wind and solar to hydropower portfolios help maintain free-flowing rivers and the ecosystem services they provide?
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How does accounting for climate change influence selections of “best” portfolios?
An ultimate goal is to establish whether there are generalizable “rules” in designing configurations of dams that minimize functional impairment to ecosystem services yet meet acceptable energy targets within defined economic constraints. We recognize the many challenges here, given the scarcity of information for the region, and it will be important for us to identify key analytical approaches and data gaps critical for addressing these questions.
Aerial photography of the construction process of the Ituango Hydroelectric Power Plant, Colombia
Svenswikipedia, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Project Team
Click on the photo to access the researchers' bio.
Agenda
21-23 June, 2023
WEDNESDAY, June 21st
Time | Presenter | Topic |
|---|---|---|
9 – 9:20 am | Alex Flecker | Welcome, broader vision, and meeting goals |
9:20 – 9:40 am | Hector Angarita | Magdalena overview |
9:40 – 10 am | Rafael Almeida | Greenhouse gases, floating solar and mitigating emissions |
10 – 10:20 am | Guido Herrera/ Sebastian Heilpern | Biodiversity |
10:20 – 10:40 am | Andrew Wilcox/ Rafael Schmitt | Sediments overview |
10:40 – 10:55 am | Break | |
10:55 – 11:15 am | Felipe Pacheco/ Rafael Almeida/ Andrés Munar/ Ayan Fleischmann | Climate change |
11:15 – 11:35 am | Rafael Schmitt | Strategic planning … and beyond South America |
11:35 – 11:55 am | Hector Angarita | Overview of Colombia energy transitions |
11:55 am – noon | Group Photo | |
noon – 1:15 pm | Lunch | |
1:15 – 2 pm | Marc Grimson/ Carla Gomes/ Laura Greenstreet/ Rich Bernstein | Computational progress and Magdalena Ecovistas |
2 – 3:15 pm | Facilitators: Steven Thomas/ Suresh Sethi | Discussion (Conceptual themes / frameworks and Problem formulation) |
3:15 – 3:30 pm | Break | |
3:30 – 4:30 pm | Facilitators: Steven Thomas/ Suresh Sethi | Discussion cont. |
4:30 – 5:15 pm | Set up for Day 2 (breakout group goals / organization) | |
7 pm | Dinner: Hawi Ethiopian Cuisine |
10:40 – 10:55 pm
Break
noon – 1:15 pm
Lunch
3:15 – 3:30 pm
Break
7 pm
Dinner - Hawi Ethiopian Cuisine
THURSDAY, June 22nd
Time | Facilitators | Topic |
|---|---|---|
9 – 10 am | Sebastian / Rafael | Discussion: What’s missing? |
10 am – noon | Breakout Group Work: Refine criteria and analyses for computational framework; Lightning reports of morning progress (5-10 minutes reporting per group) | |
Noon – 1:15 pm | Lunch | |
1:15 – 3 pm | Continue Breakout group work; lay out structure of sub-group papers / other contributions | |
3 – 3:15 pm | Break | |
3:15 – 5:15 pm | Continue breakout group work; lay out structure of sub-group papers / other contributions | |
Evening | Dinner / social: Alex and Sunny’s house |
3 – 3:15 pm
Break
noom – 1:15 pm
Lunch
7 pm
Dinner / Social - Alex and Sunny’s house
FRIDAY, June 23rd
Title | Facilitators | Topic |
|---|---|---|
9 – 10 am | Suresh / Steven | Discussion: Who’s missing? Linking to policy and the real world; integration with in-country energy policies |
10 am – noon | Breakout Group Work: Refine criteria and analyses for computational framework; Lightning reports of morning progress (5-10 minutes reporting per group) | |
12:15 – 1:15 pm | Lunch | |
1:15 – 3 pm | Breakout Group Work: Refine criteria and analyses for computational framework; Lightning reports of morning progress (5-10 minutes reporting per group) | |
3 – 3:15 pm | Break | |
3:15 – 4:30 pm | Discussion on next steps / future funding | |
Evening | Dinner / Bonfire - Suresh’s house |
3 – 3:15 pm
Break
noon – 1:15 pm
Lunch
7 pm
Dinner / Bonfire - Suresh’s house
Selected readings
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2023 World Hydropower Outlook: Opportunities to advance net zero
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Almeida, R.M., Fleischmann, A.S., Brêda, J.P., Cardoso, D.S., Angarita, H., Collischonn, W., Forsberg, B., García-Villacorta, R., Hamilton, S.K., Hannam, P.M. and Paiva, R., 2021. Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower. Global Environmental Change, 71, p.102383.
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Almeida, R.M., Schmitt, R.J., Castelletti, A., Flecker, A.S., Harou, J.J., Heilpern, S.A., Kittner, N., Kondolf, G.M., Opperman, J.J., Shi, Q. and Gomes, C.P., 2022. Strategic planning of hydropower development: balancing benefits and socioenvironmental costs. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 56, p.101175.
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Almeida, R.M., Shi, Q., Gomes-Selman, J.M., Wu, X., Xue, Y., Angarita, H., Barros, N., Forsberg, B.R., García-Villacorta, R., Hamilton, S.K. and Melack, J.M., 2019. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions of Amazon hydropower with strategic dam planning. Nature Communications, 10(1), p.4281.
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Andrus, S.R., Diffely, R.J. and Alford, T.L., 2023. Theoretical analysis of green hydrogen from hydropower: A case study of the Northwest Columbia River system. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 48(22), pp.7993-8001.
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Angarita, H., Wickel, A. J., Sieber, J., Chavarro, J., Maldonado-Ocampo, J. A., Herrera-R., G. A., Delgado, J., and Purkey, D., 2018. Basin-scale impacts of hydropower development on the Mompós Depression wetlands, Colombia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2839–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2839-2018.
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Davis, W., 2020. Magdalena: River of dreams. Random House.
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Flecker, A.S., Shi, Q., Almeida, R.M., Angarita, H., Gomes-Selman, J.M., García-Villacorta, R., Sethi, S.A., Thomas, S.A., Poff, N.L., Forsberg, B.R. and Heilpern, S.A., 2022. Reducing adverse impacts of Amazon hydropower expansion. Science, 375(6582), pp.753-760.
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Herrera‐R, G.A., Oberdorff, T., Anderson, E.P., Brosse, S., Carvajal‐Vallejos, F.M., Frederico, R.G., Hidalgo, M., Jézéquel, C., Maldonado, M., Maldonado‐Ocampo, J.A. and Ortega, H., 2020. The combined effects of climate change and river fragmentation on the distribution of Andean Amazon fishes. Global Change Biology, 26(10), pp.5509-5523.
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Jiménez‐Segura, L.F., Palacio, J. and Leite, R., 2010. River flooding and reproduction of migratory fish species in the Magdalena River basin, Colombia. Ecology of freshwater fish, 19(2), pp.178-186.
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Jiménez-Segura, L., Restrepo-Ángel, J.D. and Hernandez-Serna, A., 2022. Drivers for the artisanal fisheries production in the Magdalena River. Frontiers in Environmental Science, p.1619.
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Jovan, D.J., Dolanc, G. and Pregelj, B., 2022. Utilization of excess water accumulation for green hydrogen production in a run-of-river hydropower plant. Renewable Energy, 195, pp.780-794.
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Opperman, J.J., Carvallo, J.P., Kelman, R., Schmitt, R.J., Almeida, R., Chapin, E., Flecker, A., Goichot, M., Grill, G., Harou, J.J. and Hartmann, J., 2023. Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, p.2410.
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Morón, S., Amos, K., Edmonds, D.A., Payenberg, T., Sun, X. and Thyer, M., 2017. Avulsion triggering by El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tectonic forcing: The case of the tropical Magdalena River, Colombia. Bulletin of the Geological Society of America, 129(9-10), pp.1300-1313.
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Munar A M, Mendez N, Narvaez G, Campo Zambrano F, Motta-Marques D, Lyra Fialho Brêda J P, Santos Fleischmann A and Angarita H 2023 Modelling the climate change impacts on river discharge and inundation extent in the Magdalena River basin – Colombia. Hydrological Sciences Journal 1-15
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Pérez-Consuegra, N., Hoyos, N., Restrepo, J.C., Escobar, J. and Hoke, G.D., 2021. Contrasting climate controls on the hydrology of the mountainous Cauca River and its associated sedimentary basin: Implications for interpreting the sedimentary record. Geomorphology, 377, p.107590.
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Restrepo, J.D. and Escobar, H.A., 2018. Sediment load trends in the Magdalena River basin (1980–2010): Anthropogenic and climate-induced causes. Geomorphology, 302, pp.76-91.
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Restrepo, J.D., Kettner, A.J. and Syvitski, J.P., 2015. Recent deforestation causes rapid increase in river sediment load in the Colombian Andes. Anthropocene, 10, pp.13-28.
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Rogéliz, C.A., Angarita, H., Nardini, A., Delgado, J. and Hincapie, D., Enabling coordination of independent stakeholders to minimize impacts of dam construction and operation at macrobasin scale: an information technology approach.
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Salgado, J., Shurin, J.B., Vélez, M.I., Link, A., Lopera‐Congote, L., González‐Arango, C., Jaramillo, F., Åhlén, I. and de Luna, G., 2022. Causes and consequences of recent degradation of the Magdalena River basin, Colombia. Limnology and Oceanography Letters, 7(6), pp.451-465.
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Schmitt, R.J., Kittner, N., Kondolf, G.M. and Kammen, D.M., 2021. Joint strategic energy and river basin planning to reduce dam impacts on rivers in Myanmar. Environmental Research Letters, 16(5), p.054054.
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Subalusky, A.L., Anderson, E.P., Jiménez, G., Post, D.M., Lopez, D.E., García-R, S., León, L.J.N., Parrish, J.F.R., Rojas, A., Solari, S. and Jiménez-Segura, L.F., 2021. Potential ecological and socio-economic effects of a novel megaherbivore introduction: the hippopotamus in Colombia. Oryx, 55(1), pp.105-113.
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Taylor, L., 2023. Colombia's' cocaine hippo'population is even bigger than scientists thought. Nature.
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Winton, R.S., López-Casas, S., Valencia-Rodríguez, D., Bernal-Forero, C., Delgado, J., Wehrli, B. and Jiménez-Segura, L., 2022. Patterns and drivers of water quality changes associated with dams in the Tropical Andes. EGUsphere, pp.1-21.